Watershed rainfall forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks with the assimilation of multi-sensor information

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V

Money Walks: A Human-Centric Study on the Economics of Personal Mobile Data

In the context of a myriad of mobile apps which collect personally identifiable information (PII) and a prospective market place of personal data, we investigate a user-centric monetary valuation of mobile PII. During a 6-week long user study in a living lab deployment with 60 participants, we collected their daily valuations of 4 categories of mobile PII (communication, e.g. phonecalls made/received, applications, e.g. time spent on different apps, location and media, photos taken) at three levels of complexity (individual data points, aggregated statistics and processed, i.e. meaningful interpretations of the data). In order to obtain honest valuations, we employ a reverse second price auction mechanism. Our findings show that the most sensitive and valued category of personal information is location. We report statistically significant associations between actual mobile usage, personal dispositions, and bidding behavior. Finally, we outline key implications for the design of mobile services and future markets of personal data.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures. To appear in ACM International Joint Conference on Pervasive and Ubiquitous Computing (Ubicomp 2014

Traditional tales and imaginary contexts in primary design and technology: a case study

Working with contexts is a key component to design and technology activity and education. The most recent iteration of the national curriculum programme of study for design and technology, in England, sets out that children between the ages of 5 and 7 “should work in a range of relevant contexts” (DfE, 2013: 193); suggested contexts including “home and school, gardens and playgrounds, the local community, industry and the wider environment”. Whilst these are real world and familiar contexts, fictional contexts also provide opportunities for developing “creative spaces” in which to speculate and discuss. This intrinsic case study explores the work of two primary teachers’ development of a design and technology activity, where traditional tales provide the context. Children explore design problems and opportunities through the eyes of the Billy Goats Gruff, as they seek assistance to cross the river. Data was gathered through semi-structured interviews and document analysis of children’s design work. The case study reveals how multidisciplinary and imaginative approaches to teaching and learning in the primary classroom simulate and nurture design thinking, dialogue and critique

Kinematic modelling of a 3-axis NC machine tool in linear and circular interpolation

Machining time is a major performance criterion when it comes to high-speed machining. CAM software can help in estimating that time for a given strategy. But in practice, CAM-programmed feed rates are rarely achieved, especially where complex surface finishing is concerned. This means that machining time forecasts are often more than one step removed from reality. The reason behind this is that CAM routines do not take either the dynamic performances of the machines or their specific machining tolerances into account. The present article seeks to improve simulation of high-speed NC machine dynamic behaviour and machining time prediction, offering two models. The first contributes through enhanced simulation of three-axis paths in linear and circular interpolation, taking high-speed machine accelerations and jerks into account. The second model allows transition passages between blocks to be integrated in the simulation by adding in a polynomial transition path that caters for the true machining environment tolerances. Models are based on respect for path monitoring. Experimental validation shows the contribution of polynomial modelling of the transition passage due to the absence of a leap in acceleration. Simulation error on the machining time prediction remains below 1%

The 'four principles of bioethics' as found in 13(th) century Muslim scholar Mawlana's teachings

BACKGROUND: There have been different ethical approaches to the issues in the history of philosophy. Two American philosophers Beachump and Childress formulated some ethical principles namely 'respect to autonomy', 'justice', 'beneficence' and 'non-maleficence'. These 'Four Principles' were presented by the authors as universal and applicable to any culture and society. Mawlana, a great figure in Sufi tradition, had written many books which not only guide people how to worship God to be close to Him, but also advise people how to lead a good life to enrich their personality, as well as to create a harmonious society and a peaceful world. METHODS: In this study we examined the major works of Mawlana to find out which of these 'Four Principles of Bioethics' exist in Mawlana's ethical understanding. RESULTS: We have found in our study that all these principles exist in Mawlana's writings and philosophy in one form or another. CONCLUSIONS: We have concluded that, further to Beachump and Childress' claim that these principles are universal and applicable to any culture and society, these principles have always existed in different moral traditions in different ways, of which Mawlana's teaching might be presented as a good example

Estimation in a Competing Risks Proportional Hazards Model Under Length-biased Sampling With Censoring

International audienceWhat population does the sample represent? The answer to this question is of crucial importance when estimating a survivor function in duration studies. As is well-known, in a stationary population, survival data obtained from a cross-sectional sample taken from the population at time $t_0$ represents not the target density $f(t)$ but its length-biased version proportional to $tf(t)$, for $t>0$. The problem of estimating survivor function from such length-biased samples becomes more complex, and interesting, in presence of competing risks and censoring. This paper lays out a sampling scheme related to a mixed Poisson process and develops nonparametric estimators of the survivor function of the target population assuming that the two independent competing risks have proportional hazards. Two cases are considered: with and without independent consoring before length biased sampling. In each case, the weak convergence of the process generated by the proposed estimator is proved. A well-known study of the duration in power for political leaders is used to illustrate our results. Finally, a simulation study is carried out in order to assess the finite sample behaviour of our estimators

The lncRNA HOTAIR transcription is controlled by HNF4α-induced chromatin topology modulation

The expression of the long noncoding RNA HOTAIR (HOX Transcript Antisense Intergenic RNA) is largely deregulated in epithelial cancers and positively correlates with poor prognosis and progression of hepatocellular carcinoma and gastrointestinal cancers. Furthermore, functional studies revealed a pivotal role for HOTAIR in the epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, as this RNA is causal for the repressive activity of the master factor SNAIL on epithelial genes. Despite the proven oncogenic role of HOTAIR, its transcriptional regulation is still poorly understood. Here hepatocyte nuclear factor 4-α (HNF4α), as inducer of epithelial differentiation, was demonstrated to directly repress HOTAIR transcription in the mesenchymal-to epithelial transition. Mechanistically, HNF4α was found to cause the release of a chromatin loop on HOTAIR regulatory elements thus exerting an enhancer-blocking activity

Nationwide epidemiological study of severe gallstone disease in Taiwan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our study aimed to assess the nationwide trends in the incidence of severe gallstone disease in Taiwan among adults aged ≥20.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database collected during 1997–2005. Patients with incident severe gallstone disease (acute cholecystitis, biliary pancreatitis, acute cholangitis) and gallstone-related procedures (elective and non-elective cholecystectomy, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography [ERCP]) that led to hospital admission were identified using ICD-9-CM diagnostic and procedure codes. Annual incidence rates of gallstone-related complications and procedures were calculated and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated assuming a Poisson distribution.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The hospital admission rate for severe gallstone disease increased with advancing age and the age-standardized rate (95% CI) per 1000 population was 0.60 (0.59–0.60) for men and 0.59 (0.59–0.60) for women. Men had a higher rate of acute cholecystitis, probably due to the substantially lower rate of elective cholecystectomy among men than women. For those aged 20–39, hospital admissions for all gallstone-related complications and procedures increased significantly. For those aged ≥60, incidences of biliary pancreatitis, acute cholangitis, and hospital admission for gallstone receiving ERCP increased significantly without substantial change in the incidence of acute cholecystitis and despite a decreased rate of elective cholecystectomy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This population-based study found a substantial increase in the rate of admission for severe gallstone disease among those aged 20–39. Concurrently, the incidences of biliary pancreatitis and acute cholangitis have risen among those aged ≥60.</p

Interferon regulatory factor 8-deficiency determines massive neutrophil recruitment but T cell defect in fast growing granulomas during tuberculosis

Following Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, immune cell recruitment in lungs is pivotal in establishing protective immunity through granuloma formation and neogenesis of lymphoid structures (LS). Interferon regulatory factor-8 (IRF-8) plays an important role in host defense against Mtb, although the mechanisms driving anti-mycobacterial immunity remain unclear. In this study, IRF-8 deficient mice (IRF-8−/−) were aerogenously infected with a low-dose Mtb Erdman virulent strain and the course of infection was compared with that induced in wild-type (WT-B6) counterparts. Tuberculosis (TB) progression was examined in both groups using pathological, microbiological and immunological parameters. Following Mtb exposure, the bacterial load in lungs and spleens progressed comparably in the two groups for two weeks, after which IRF-8−/− mice developed a fatal acute TB whereas in WT-B6 the disease reached a chronic stage. In lungs of IRF-8−/−, uncontrolled growth of pulmonary granulomas and impaired development of LS were observed, associated with unbalanced homeostatic chemokines, progressive loss of infiltrating T lymphocytes and massive prevalence of neutrophils at late infection stages. Our data define IRF-8 as an essential factor for the maintenance of proper immune cell recruitment in granulomas and LS required to restrain Mtb infection. Moreover, IRF-8−/− mice, relying on a common human and mouse genetic mutation linked to susceptibility/severity of mycobacterial diseases, represent a valuable model of acute TB for comparative studies with chronically-infected congenic WT-B6 for dissecting protective and pathological immune reactions